螺旋粉虱在中国的适生区预测与风险区划

Prediction of suitable regions and risk subdivisions of spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus Russell, in China

中文关键词:螺旋粉虱  适生性  风险区划  预测模型  中国

keywords:Aleurodicus disperses  viability  risk subdivisions  predictive model  China

中文摘要:螺旋粉虱Aleurodicus dispersus Russell是新入侵中国海南的危险性害虫。根据制约螺旋粉虱分布的关键气候因子临界值、有效积温和生物气候相似距,选用Access设计数据库、MapInfo MapX和Visual Basic设计程序,构建螺旋粉虱地理分布模型(geographic distribution model for A.dispersus, GDMAD),并以我国670个气象站点30年的气象资料运行该模型。结果表明:螺旋粉虱在中国的适生区主要包括以广东、广西为中心的1个大区和以四川盆地为中心的1个小区。螺旋粉虱在上述适生区可以安全越冬,1年发生4~12代,以6~9代为主。其中,高度危险区主要包括台湾、海南、广东、广西的大部、福建东南部以及江西、云南的个别地区,面积约38.84万km²;危险区主要包括浙江南部、江西中南部、湖南南部、福建大部、广西北部、云南中南部、四川东南部、贵州南部以及广东、湖北、台湾的个别地区,面积约85.70万km²;轻度危险区主要包括四川、云南、贵州、湖南、江西、浙江等气温较低的部分地区和广东、海南、台湾等降水量过大的个别地区,面积约35.12万km²。

Abstract:The spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus Russell, is a newly discovered invasive pest in Hainan Province of China. A geographic distribution model for A.dispersus (GDMAD) is established with Access Database Design, MapInfo MapX and Visual Basic Design Process, based on the critical value of key climatic factors of the pest distribution, effective accumulated temperature and bioclimate analogical distance (BAD). The meteorological data of 30 years duration from 670 stations in China were used to run GDMAD. The model predicts that the suitable areas for the survival of A.disperses in China contained a large area centered on Guangdong and Guangxi and a small area on Sichuan Basin where the spiralling whitefly can overwinter. Of which, high-risk regions include the major areas (about 388400km²) of Hainan, Guangdong, Taiwan and Guangxi, and part of the Fujian, Jiangxi and Yunnan. Risk regions (about 857000km²) include southern Zhejiang, central and southern Jiangxi, southern Hunan, most of Fujian, northern Guangxi, central and southern Yunnan, southeastern Sichuan, southern Guizhou, and a small portion of Guangdong, Hubei and Taiwan. Low-risk regions (about 351200km²) include cool locations in Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang and a few locations of rich rainfall in Guangdong, Hainan and Taiwan. The predictions also indicate that the spiralling whitefly would complete 4-12 generations annually in suitable survival regions though 6-9 generations annually are more likely.